Tokerud Domain

August 7, 2008

State of Apple -- August 2008

iPhone 3G + App Store + Booming Mac Sales. Despite turbulence at the simultaneous launch of the iPhone 3G, App store, iPhone 2.0 and MobileMe, Apple is going gangbusters.

But, the number of problems occurring in recent weeks may be a new record for Apple.

A lot of people (including me) believe that Apple was getting overconfident. They started believing they were infallible. Now they know better.

On the bright side, though, Apple is disrupting and raising the bar in the industries they've chosen to participate in. They are making a difference that I and many others appreciate. Ultimately, I attribute the innovation Apple has achieved to: opportunity, vision, people and passion.

In the late 90's, after Steve Jobs came back, Apple started a concerted effort to gain marketshare for the Mac. This wasn't easy but they attacked the problem with relentless gusto and creativity. Steve assessed his competition (Microsoft) as formidable due to extreme marketshare dominance. But, he saw a long-term opportunity when comparing the technical potential of OS X vs. Windows.

Jobs bet on Apple's technology, team, vision and design sense. The least that could be achieved was survival as the BMW to Microsoft's Ford.

The massive undertaking of launching and realizing the potential of OS X was carried out successfully. The iPod, a whole new product initiative, was orchestrated to great success and segment dominance. Apple's success with the iPod gave them the wherewithal to try an even more ambitous project: the iPhone.

It took three years to bring iPhone to market. In the meantime, Apple pulled off a complete switch to Intel processors from the PowerPC chip architecture. Steve said Apple needed Intel's planned low-powered chips to drive growth in smaller computer devices. We are still seeing the fruits of this transition.

The MacBook Air is an example of a smaller device that uses Intel's low-power chips. Lots of people are hoping for a tablet Mac or a large iPod touch in the next year. This seems likely now as other smaller devices are gaining some traction. The EEE PC, Nokia's N810 and the PSP all may be carving out a spot for better devices made by Apple.

Right now, the iPhone has center stage and looks poised to radically alter the cell phone industry as we've come to know it. Leading tech pundit, Walt Mossberg, has taken to calling the cell phone, the device formerly known as the cell phone. The phone part of the iPhone is the tip of the iceberg.

Apple announced in March that it will begin a campaign to sell the iPhone into corporations, supporting Exchange and addressing the issues corporate IT deem deal-breakers. The App store introduced in July with over 1300 applications at last count seems to make the iPhone into a platform. The battle for dominant mobile platform is not over, but Apple currently occupies the front-runner slot.

Lastly, Macs are selling 3 times faster than PCs these days. Apple is taking PC marketshare quarter by quarter. There's more to say but you get the idea. I've got some gripes with the stability of iPhone 2.0 software and MobileMe, but I'll get over it and those problems will be addressed. Meanwhile, I'm absolutely in love with the App store.

November 26, 2007

State of the Mac -- November 2007

iPhone v1, Been There Done That. We've done the iPhone. I still love mine to pieces. But, it's going to Europe, Canada, Australia, China and who knows where else. There's drama with the bricking, unlocking, hacking and lawsuits.

We are waiting for the February SDK. It's doing well as expected. I would love to see Copy and Paste before version 2 of iPhone (which could come as early as Spring with 3G and 16gb), but I'm not holding my breath. So let's move on to other topics for now, shall we? (I've been writing up a storm about the iPhone on my Tech Ronin blog if you must hear more about the iPhone.)

Mac is Back. This is kind of neat. The Mac is consistently gaining marketshare. After years and years of microscopic share, Macs are starting to register on the meter. If you look at the numbers just the right way, you can find a 12% marketshare in the notebook market. That's awesome! But, of course, worldwide overall, Mac is closer to 4%. Barely a gnat on Microsoft's hide.

Sleek New iMac Doesn't Hurt. As you can see above, the iMacs are easy on the eye. I love em. I might buy one. They are as fast as the vast majority of us need. These are not crippled machines people. The perfect machine for the user. My only quibble is locking the screen (which could last 10 years) together with electronics that will be limping along in 5. One cool thing, though. You can now add a second monitor to an iMac. So, what? Put a 30" next to the 24? Maybe there is such a thing as too much screen real estate. I'll let you know.

Leopard Arrives at Last. Leopard is the most ambitious OS X upgrade to date. The UI is much improved in subtle ways. Up till now, we've been living with a patchwork of similar but differing designs in various pieces and parts of OS X, iLife and OS X applications like the Address Book. Now the Finder and everything else speak the same visual language. This is hard work to accomplish and makes a big difference to the user.

Leopard shows that Apple is in this for the long run. Big new infrastructure pieces have been put in place that will only bear fruit in future updates. Due to a somewhat bumpy first release, I only recommend Leopard for non-mission-critical situations right now. I'm using it on my backup MacBook, not my daily driver MacBook Pro or my G5. I get to play with Leopard without worrying about running into a bug when I'm on deadline. I'm looking at Christmas break as my crossover date.

It Looks Easy But Apple is Struggling. The stock is sitting at $170 a share. Forecasts look excellent for Apple right now. I'm expecting great things. But, this has not been easy this last year. Leopard got delayed and its bugs are still being polished off. The iPhone was released on the last possible day in June. Steve Jobs is good but it is not easy to be impeccable with so many different things. At least, not until you find the right people and get better at delegating. And, then there has been the Options scandal looming in the background.

Looking for the Subnotebook Mac. They may be struggling, but Apple is hitting the mark when they have to. They've got a bunch of money in the bank. They have awesome technology. Vista seems to be doing poorly to put it generously. They keep thrilling us with their new stuff. Now just give me that darned subnotebook, will you? It may be slowed down because Apple wants to or is thinking about doing a *touch* notebook or notepad. I guess all is forgiven if they pull that one off!

July 31, 2007

State of the Mac -- July 2007

iPhone Cometh. The last 6 months have been a waiting period for the iPhone. I believe Apple both (1) spent every resource they could spare on it and (2) held up any other major new introductions to keep our focus on the iPhone.

The next computer platform is the mobile phone. Desktop sales are flat (not going away), notebook sales are way up. Mobile phones sell in the billions. This iPhone launch is crucial for Apple. I like what I see. Using the iPhone is a delightful experience.

The iPhone is the breakthrough smartphone. It runs OS X (which makes it a Mac in my book). It is the smartphone for the rest of us. The smartphone that will lure a lot of the mainstream to throw down their barebone feature phones.

The iPhone is great for the mobile phone industry. Now they have Apple to drive innovation like it has driven innovation in the PC space.

There are lots of obstacles like a very competitive mobile phone space, resistance from existing industry interests, no 3G for now, lumbering AT&T so out of sync with Apple, Asian clones, who knows what all.

The biggest single thing about the iPhone is the huge screen in a pocket-sized device. Every pixel counts on a handheld rich-media computer that's also a mobile phone. A physical keyboard is a luxury not worth having, if it cuts screen space in half. Besides, you only get one keyboard and you really need at least two: QWERTY and phone number pad. Unless you want to slip and slide, a physical keyboard is too much trouble when the alternative is Apple's amazing screen keyboard that can change to suit the occasion.

What about Leopard? First of all, it's been delayed to help make iPhone better and get it out the door. Secondly, the preview in June at the Developer's Conference was so-so. I think that was intentional so as not to distract from the iPhone launch. The new dock looks awesome, but where's the beef? Besides, Leopard will be more important for what it makes possible than for the glitz and glamour.

I want the new Mail features for notes and to do's that come in Leopard. I want to see what iLife 2008 on Leopard will be like. I might like the virtual desktop. All I can say is that I am glad we are in Apple's hands. Imagine the alternative.

Think Small. Back when Steve announced Mac was going Intel, he said it was to get the low-power, high performance chips Intel was going to make. It was all about small, portable devices. We now have seen the first one - the iPhone. Look out for a second one in the form of an ultra-portable. It's coming. I hope it uses a touch screen and leans towards the tablet side of things. Maybe that's too risky. I hope they go for it.

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